Bitcoin might experience a major bullish trend next month if it continues to follow the 200-week trendline: Analyst

According to market observer Cole Garner, Bitcoin is gearing up for a classic-style, robust bull phase in its price movement. Garner, a prominent on-chain analyst, shared his insights on 6 August through social media, indicating significant potential for upward momentum in both the Bitcoin market and the wider cryptocurrency landscape.

19/ Invalidation of this bull thesis, on a weekly close below the 200 SMA. pic.twitter.com/TXfFWG0vsj

— Cole Garner (@ColeGarnersTake) August 5, 2023

The foundation of the Bitcoin bull market is becoming more robust

While the current BTC price movement remains stagnant, those with a longer-term perspective firmly believe that this cycle follows a familiar pattern. Garner identifies reasons for optimism, such as the actions of major Bitcoin investors known as whales.

He emphasised that the accumulation trends of whales serve as crucial support for a bullish market. Garner pointed to research by Jarvis Labs, who highlighted a continuous ‘multi-month buying frenzy’ in response to a news article published in June.

Beyond just the involvement of whales, there's a noticeable uptick in BTC exposure from smaller investors, often referred to as fish. Moreover, CryptoCon, a well-regarded technical analyst, has coined the term "diamond hands" for whales due to their actions in the current market phase.

CryptoCon highlighted this trend in an analysis dated 3 August, stating, "The surge in the ratio of small investors to whales is in full swing. What does this signify? During this cycle (2022 - 2023), the sellers primarily consist of small investors, while whales are resolutely holding onto their positions."

CryptoCon pointed out that in the previous Bitcoin cycle, there was a distinct pattern of persistent whale selling, which is noticeably absent in the current scenario.

A lot riding on the 200-week moving average of BTC

Garner also emphasised the significance of monitoring the Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio on the well-known exchange Bitfinex. This behaviour pattern has historically anticipated major bull runs in Bitcoin, according to previous reports Highlighting the importance of the Bitfinex Whale, Garner stated, "Bitfinex holds a key position as the hub of informed investors.

The influence of the Bitfinex Whale on short-to-medium term price movements is unparalleled within the crypto realm." As for the timing of a potential bullish breakout in the BTC price, uncertainty prevails, though Garner is inclined toward a launch in the third quarter.

However, Garner acknowledged an opposing argument centred around the impact of summer seasonality, stating, "A noteworthy counter-force that holds more sway than commonly recognised is the seasonal aspect of the bear market during the summer." He further stated:

That shakeout will come. But likely not until September. Markets should still have weeks to run.

Cole Garner, Market observer

To challenge the optimistic perspective, he concluded that for Bitcoin to be discredited, it would require a weekly closing price below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which currently stands at $27,235, according to data from TradingView.